Unbelievable Bitcoin Price Soaring,
Biggest Bubble Ever.
本文最初發表於 Dec 18 Mon 2017
I have to say that the block chain technology behind Bitcoin is very important in the future. It just like that we don’t know how much important Internet is in the past.
However, the abnormal price soaring of bitcoin is really dangerous and I do think that it is one of the biggest bubble ever.
Why do I say this? Let me give you 2 reasons.
1. When we evaluate the price of securities, anyone who has ever taken financial management course would know that “discount cash flow” method is important to value the price of any asset. In other words, we have to discount every anticipated potential cash flow back to today by an appropriate discount rate, then we can get a rough value.
For Bitcoin, some people say that we can value its price by “trade volume” and “Intercept point”. But it is still very difficult for non-technology background investor to do the research. I do believe Bitcoin worth some value because of its scarcity, which is similar to gold. However, the price is still too high now.
2. I think that too many people don’t know what bitcoin is, and then they invest. Everyday every investors know that price of Bitcoin goes higher and higher so that they want to follow the trend to invest even if that they do not know about block-chain or digital currencies. This is the overheat sign of bitcoin.
I cannot tell what the target price of bitcoin is. Actually, no one knows, yet there are more and more people believe that it is a bubble.