比特幣自2017年初的漲勢，是21世紀最大的金融泡沫 @ CrazyFinancier 做點筆記

比特幣自2017年初的漲勢，是21世紀最大的金融泡沫

Unbelievable Bitcoin Price Soaring,
Biggest Bubble Ever.

本文最初發表於 Dec 18 Mon 2017

I have to say that the block chain technology behind Bitcoin is very important in the future. It just like that we don’t know how much important Internet is in the past.

我不得不說，比特幣背後的塊鏈科技在未來非常重要。就像我們不知道互聯網在過去有多麼重要。

However, the abnormal price soaring of bitcoin is really dangerous and I do think that it is one of the biggest bubble ever.

然而，比特幣的反常價格飆升真的很危險，我確實認為它是有史以來最大的泡沫之一。

Why do I say this? Let me give you 2 reasons.

我為什麼這麼說？讓我給你2個理由。

1. When we evaluate the price of securities, anyone who has ever taken financial management course would know that “discount cash flow” method is important to value the price of any asset. In other words, we have to discount every anticipated potential cash flow back to today by an appropriate discount rate, then we can get a rough value.

1、當我們評估證券價格時，任何曾經接受過財務管理課程的人都知道“貼現現金流”法對任何資產的價值都很重要。換言之，我們必須把每一個預期的潜在現金流以適當的貼現率折現到今天，然後我們才能得到一個粗略的值。

For Bitcoin, some people say that we can value its price by “trade volume” and “Intercept point”. But it is still very difficult for non-technology background investor to do the research. I do believe Bitcoin worth some value because of its scarcity, which is similar to gold. However, the price is still too high now.

對於比特幣，有些人說我們可以通過“交易量”和“攔截點”來評估它的價格。但對於非科技背景投資者來說，進行研究仍然很困難，難以用折現法理解比特幣的價值。我相信比特幣由於其稀缺性，價值與黃金相似，因此有些價值。然而，現在的價格還是太高了。

2. I think that too many people don’t know what bitcoin is, and then they invest. Everyday every investors know that price of Bitcoin goes higher and higher so that they want to follow the trend to invest even if that they do not know about block-chain or digital currencies. This is the overheat sign of bitcoin.

2、我認為太多的人不知道比特幣是什麼，然後他們投資。每天，每個投資者都知道比特幣的價格越來越高，以至於他們想跟隨投資的趨勢，即使他們不知道區塊鏈或數位貨幣是甚麼，這就是比特幣過熱的象徵。

I cannot tell what the target price of bitcoin is. Actually, no one knows, yet there are more and more people believe that it is a bubble.

我不知道比特幣的目標價格是什麼。事實上，沒有人知道，但確實有越來越多的人認為這是一個泡沫。